How Accurate Are Hurricane Season Predictions?

When it comes to hurricane predictions, most Florida residents have learned to take them with a grain of salt. Even with the newest meteorological science developments, there is still a lot of guesswork in predicting hurricanes. Those who have lived in Florida for many years likely remember examples of storms that changed course significantly over the weeks leads up to landfall. And, in some cases, times where the storms made drastic course changes the day it was due for landfall. Knowing this, many might ask, how accurate are hurricane season predictions?

How Do Hurricane Predictions Work?

When you wonder about hurricane prediction accuracy, it helps to understand how predictions work. Looking at the previous hurricane season, scientists use a statistical tool called the Poisson equation, which allows them to make baseline predictions for the current hurricane season. Building off this, predicting tropical storm activity is accomplished as much as a week ahead of landfall by using two separate models: United States Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Predictions System (NOGAPS), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office’s global model.

 

Using these models and comparing them to previous hurricanes on a similar path, they can get a feel for where storms will head. To help with this, they also leverage specialty computer software designed to assist in model predictions. With this together, it provided a model and predicted the path the storm might follow.

How Accurate Are Hurricane Predictions?

While these strategies can help with hurricane predictions, some variables can interfere with them. Understandably, the further out you are predicting, the higher the chance that local variables will change. These variables include pressure, water temperature, air temperature, and other seasonal impacts.

 

Because of this, forecast accuracy improves the closer to landfall the hurricane is. Despite this, it’s essential to remember what a prediction is. Even up to the day of landfall, predictions include multiple potential paths. So with any probability, there’s no guarantee on where it will land. This is why it’s essential for you prepare yourself during hurricane season.  

                                            

Understanding how storm prediction accuracy can be faulty, it pays to keep your home well-protected. At ASP Windows, we provide quality hurricane windows to protect your home and family. These ensure you can stick out the storm. Regardless, always remember that your safety is more important than any possessions. If a tropical cyclone is predicted to hit you directly, it is always recommended you evacuate, especially if it is recommended by your local city or by the State of Florida.

Hurricane Forecast Accuracy

With the way hurricane forecast accuracy works, you are better equipped to answer “how accurate are hurricane predictions.” Using the best statistical inference and local climate data, scientists can measure hurricanes with some degree of accuracy. But, as with any other prediction, you should always prepare for even a false prediction.

Protecting Your Home from Hurricane Damage

If you live in Florida, trusting hurricane predictions can be a risky business. Even up to the last day, hurricanes can suddenly shift course, resulting in some unexpected impact and severe damage to those affected. Living in Florida has some significant advantages, but keeping your home protected from hurricanes is essential if you want to reduce the risk to your family.

 

At ASP Windows, we understand how scary a hurricane can be, and we help you to prepare with hurricane impact windows. Want to be worry-free when a storm’s coming? We have your back. Call us now to prepare at 305-494-8107.